Septemberās housing market looks like two different seasons: nationally it feels like training camp, while the western suburbs have a playoff feel. Here are some of the key takeaways:
š Nationally, the Fed cut rates but mortgage rates rose to about 6.375%
š Buyers nationally are gaining ground but not in full control; home prices still rose 2.2% year over year
ā³ National days on market extended from 53 to 60, with 20% of listings cutting prices and concessions returning
šļø Burr Ridge homes sold in just 3 days at a median price over $1M, with one closing at $2.425M.
ā¾ Downers Grove stayed tight with 1.31 months of supply, 7 days on market, and a $580K median price
š„ Naperville inventory dropped to 1.15 months, homes sold in 8 days, and the median price reached $635K
The national market may be cautious, but locally the western suburbs are still moving fast, with low supply, firm prices, and postseason intensity.
Eric Andersen, B.A., M.Div.
Owner/Designated Managing Broker, Andersen Realty Group
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Transcript:
In September, the NHL and MLB are in two very different stages of competition. In the NHL, hockey players are just showing up for training camp. The practices are deliberate as coaches test out line combinations and evaluate each playerās conditioning. Some players are fit and skating hard, and others are trying to remember which end of the stick goes on the ice. Everyone knows the seasonās long and that Septemberās more about preparationĀ than performance. While hockeyās just getting started, baseball is gearing up for the postseason. The stadiums are packed, every pitch is critical, and one mistake can end a season. The time for practice is over. The playoffs are where legacies are made or forgotten.
Iām Eric with Andersen Realty Group, and this same contrast shows up in todayās housing market. Nationally, conditions look like training camp. The market is cautious and slower. Buyers and sellers are waiting to see what happens next. But here in the western suburbs of Chicago, the pace feels more like the playoffs. Homes are selling fast, inventoryās scarce, and significant decisions are made quickly.Ā
When we talk about the national housing market, we have to start with interest rates. Rates donāt just affect monthly payments. They affect confidence, buyer demand, and set the table for home prices nationwide. Thatās why the Federal Reserveās decision this week drew so much attention, as it always does.
Mortgage rates have had a turbulent few weeks. The Federal Reserve cut rates in September, but mortgage rates responded by rising, which is exactly what happened last time the Fed cut. The national 30-year fixed rate rose about 15 basis points after Fed Chair Jerome Powellās press conference, settling near 6.375%. The 10-year Treasury followed the same path, reaching 4.10%. The bond market had expected a more dovish tone from the Fed, but Powellās caution left investors hesitant.
At the same time, economic data has been firm. Retail sales, jobless claims, and manufacturing reports have all been relatively strong. This data kept yields from dropping further, even as the Fed signaled an easing of monetary policy. Rates had dropped prior to the meeting but quickly reversed afterward. While rates remain within the 5.75%-7.25% range predicted for 2025, dropping below 6% has been very difficult.
Higher rates have also resulted in a national slowing of the market, leading many to ask if weāre in a buyerās market yet. New reports from Redfin and Realtor.com say buyers are gaining ground, but they havenāt taken control. Nationally, home prices are still climbing, rising 2.2% year over year during the four weeks ending September 14. The increase isnāt driven by surging demand, but by sellers pulling back. New listings have hovered nearly flat for three months, and total listings are up only 10% year over year, which is the smallest increase weāve seen since early 2024. Pending sales are also hesitant, up only 0.8% year over year. Many buyers are waiting, hoping that recent Fed action will translate into lower mortgage rates later this fall.
Time on market has grown from 53 days in August to 60, and more than 20% of listings are reducing their asking price. Concessions, nearly absent in recent years, are reappearing. Realtor.com describes the market as transitional rather than a flip. Buyers are finding more time, more negotiation power, and in some markets, more options. Sellers are beginning to adjust expectations, but inventory in many places remains well below the 6 months supply that define a true buyerās market.
The balance of power can vary widely by location. Markets like Miami, Austin, Orlando, New York, Jacksonville, and Tampa are saturated with listings and have a 6 to 9 months supply, which meets the definition of a buyerās market. But 23 markets still favor sellers, and another 20 are roughly balanced. Housing type also matters: single-family homes remain difficult to find in many regions, while condos are more abundant.
Prices at the national level have flattened compared to the rapid gains of recent years, and appreciation is moderating. In areas where supply has recovered, especially the South and West, growth has cooled. The Midwest and Northeast are warmer, reflecting tighter supply. Overall sentiment remains cautious, with two-thirds of Americans saying they expect a recession. The labor market shows cracks, but not collapse, which is enough to keep markets on edge. Taken together, the national housing market feels like preseason, with players skating drills, stretching, and waiting for the season to get underway.
With that national context in mind, weāll now turn to the western suburbs of Chicago. While the broader market stretches and warms up, Burr Ridge, Downers Grove, and Naperville are still in postseason competition mode. Buyers and sellers here arenāt in a practice environment. Decisions have to be made quickly, as inventory remains low and prices high.Ā
The supply of homes for sale in Burr Ridge is down 37% since last month and 38% since last year, which has kept homes selling very quickly. The median time to contract is only 3 days, homes are closing at 96% of asking price, and the median sale price for a single family home is over $1M. 1002 Burr Ridge Club just closed last month, and they get the Warren Buffet award for nearly setting a record sale price at $2.425M, which is the second-most expensive home thatās sold over the past 12 months.Ā
Downers Grove is even tighter. Supply has fallen to 1.31 months, down 44% since last month and 63% year over year. Homes in Downers have been selling in 7 days for 100% of asking price, and the median single family home sale price is currently $580,000. 1640 Glen Ave. gets the Scrooge McDuck award for going $100k over asking, and the seller is now diving into piles of money.Ā
Naperville is similar. Inventory is at a ridiculously low 1.15 months supply, down 58% since last month and 69% year over year. Homes last only 8 days on the market, close at 99% of list, and have a median sold price of $635,000. 25W441 Plank Rd gets the Rip Van Winkle award for highest market time, at one year and one day.Ā
But Plank Road and a handful of others aside, the western suburbs remain at postseason intensity. Inventory remains low, prices remain high, and homes are selling very quickly.Ā
The housing market is not the same everywhere. Nationally, it has the feel of a training camp, but locally, it has the urgency of the postseason. If youād like help selling or buying a home in the western suburbs, reach out using my contact information, below. Iām Eric with Andersen Realty Group, a family-owned brokerage where we treat our clients like family.