Urban Exodus: Why Chicagoans are Moving to the Western Suburbs

Urban Exodus: Why Chicagoans are Moving to the Western Suburbs

In this video, we’re looking at the trend of Chicago residents moving to the western suburbs. We’ll explore the reasons behind this shift and what it means for both the city and the suburbs.

📣 Beyond the Hype: First, let’s cut through the sensationalism in real estate news. While there’s a trend towards suburban living, city homes are still appreciating in value. We’ll compare the recent market performance of key urban neighborhoods with their suburban counterparts, highlighting trends in home values and market times.

🌍 The Population Shift: Chicago saw significant population losses during the pandemic, ranking third in the nation for outmigration. In contrast, suburbs like Naperville and Yorkville have experienced growth. We’ll examine the factors driving this trend and the impact of new migration patterns on Chicago’s demographics.

🔍 What’s Driving the Shift? Three main factors are influencing this suburban migration: housing affordability, quality of life, and remote work. We’ll break down how these elements make suburban living more attractive for many when compared to the city.

🏠 Cost of Housing: Suburban homes offer more space and lower prices compared to city properties. We’ll compare average sale prices and lot sizes to illustrate why many are choosing to move away from the city.

🌟 Quality of Life: Suburbs often excel in public school ratings, safety, and cost of housing compared to Chicago. We’ll explore how these factors contribute to the appeal of suburban living.

💼 Remote Work: The rise of remote work has decreased the necessity of living close to the city. We’ll look at how the shift towards flexible work arrangements is influencing residential choices.

👀 Looking Ahead: As we look to the future, suburban areas are set to continue their growth. We’ll discuss the implications for both the suburbs and Chicago, touching on opportunities and challenges for both areas.

Eric Andersen, B.A., M.Div.
Owner/Designated Managing Broker, Andersen Realty Group
📲 Text/Call: 708.674.6725
📩 Email: eric@eandersenhomes.com
🌎 https://www.ericandersenhomes.com

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Transcript:

The movement of young couples from the city to the suburbs is nothing new, but the trend has done nothing but gain momentum over the past few years. I’m Eric with Andersen Realty Group, and in this video, we’re taking a closer look at why Chicago has been losing population, and what’s driving so many out to the suburbs. It’s a fascinating trend that’s reshaping our communities, and in this video, we’ll look at why it’s happening. 

Beyond the Hype

But first, a word of preface. Real estate news often leans towards sensationalism and exaggeration, with even the smallest data points being blown out of proportion. Yes, there’s a noticeable trend of people moving from the city to the suburbs, but that doesn’t mean city living is bad or that investments are plummeting. In fact, the opposite is true. Home values in the four urban areas we’re discussing have been increasing. Over the past decade, West Town homes appreciated by almost fifty three percent, Logan Square by about seventy five percent, and Lincoln Park by about thirty seven percent. The Near North Side only saw a four percent rise in home values over the past decade, but still, they didn’t lose value. Currently, the average time to sell a home in these areas is forty four, forty six, forty seven, and one hundred four days, respectively. Looking at the western suburbs, we generally see higher appreciation rates and shorter market times. Homes in Downers Grove appreciated by sixty seven percent, Naperville by sixty nine percent, Burr Ridge by fifty percent, and Willowbrook by sixty nine percent. The average time to sell a home in these suburbs is twenty nine, thirty three, fifty four, and twenty eight days, respectively. In summary, while the trend is shifting from the city to the suburbs, city homes are still increasing in value. However, suburban homes have generally appreciated faster and sell more quickly.

The Population Shift

Of the fifteen cities that lost the most population during 2020-2021, Chicago ranked third with a population loss of over forty five thousand people, trailing only New York City and San Francisco. This is consistent with a larger statewide trend. U Haul ranks Illinois as number forty nine out of the fifty states in terms of one-way trucks leaving the state. This significant outflow of residents from Chicago can be attributed to several factors, including the high cost of living, crime rate, and the desire for more space, especially as remote work became more prevalent. Looking at a longer time period, between April 2020 and July 2023, Chicago’s population declined by three percent. During the same time period, Naperville grew by half a percent, which is significant in a state losing population. The data highlights a growing preference for suburban living over urban life. According to Niche’s data, Naperville outperforms Chicago by a pretty wide margin in most categories, while Chicago only excels in the categories of nightlife and diversity, but only by a narrow margin.  

Meanwhile, far southwest suburbs like Yorkville, Plainfield, and Oswego are seeing robust growth. Yorkville welcomed over three thousand new residents, a nearly fifteen percent increase. This significant growth in these suburbs highlights the allure of more affordable housing, larger properties, and a quieter lifestyle. On the other hand, Illinois as a whole lost more than an estimated two hundred sixty thousand residents over the same three years, a two percent decline. It’s remarkable that a state that’s losing population still has areas that are showing any growth, much less growth in the double digits, while Chicago during that same time period lost three percent of its population. These figures don’t reflect the recent influx of forty one thousand migrants brought to Chicago since August 2022. The Census methodology doesn’t account for these new arrivals, who are often hard to count due to their transient nature, language barriers, and desire to stay under the radar. The migrant issue adds another layer to the population dynamics, as the city grapples with both outmigration and the challenges of integrating new residents.

What’s Driving the Shift?

Three main factors have been driving this flow toward the suburbs. They are housing affordability, quality of life, and the rise of remote work. Let’s explore each in turn.

Cost of Housing 

Compared to urban areas, suburban homes offer more space at a lower cost. The cost of a single family in Chicago is significantly higher than in many suburban areas. This affordability allows families to purchase larger homes with yards, providing a better quality of life for children. Let’s compare the average sale prices of single-family homes in four key Chicago neighborhoods—West Town, Logan Square, Lincoln Park, and Near North Side. In West Town and Logan Square, the average single family home is well over one million dollars. In Lincoln Park and the Near North Side, the average single family home is well over two million dollars. These figures paint a picture of a costly urban landscape where the financial investment required to live is substantial. For many families, the high cost of living in Chicago is untenable, pushing them to seek more affordable options in the suburbs.

Now let’s contrast this with the cost of housing in the western suburbs. In Downers Grove, the average home price is around six hundred thousand dollars. The average home in Naperville is just above seven hundred forty thousand dollars. Burr Ridge’s homes have been averaging about one point one million dollars. And while that’s less affordable, Burr Ridge offers larger lots and homes compared to city living. Meanwhile, Willowbrook offers a moderate price point at about six hundred fifteen thousand dollars. There’s a clear contract between what you get for your money in the suburbs versus in the city. The homes and lot sizes are generally larger, and the price tag is lower.

Quality of Life

The allure of suburban life doesn’t stop at affordability. Here, you can see Niche has rated each of our western suburbs higher than the city overall, and by a wide margin in the categories of public schools, housing, and crime. The areas where the city excels are in the categories of nightlife and diversity. Given the choice between better schools, nicer homes for less money, and lower crime versus a better nightlife, it’s no wonder many families prefer the suburbs to the city.

Data from US News & World Report shows a stark contrast between Chicago Public Schools and Naperville’s District 203. In Chicago, only sixteen percent of elementary and middle school students tested at or above the proficient level for reading, and just twelve percent in math. High school students performed similarly, with fourteen percent proficiency in both reading and math. The college readiness score for Chicago high school students is twenty eight. Naperville’s District 203 scores were higher by a wide margin. The US News & World Report study showed a fifty seven percent reading proficiency, and math proficiency levels ranging from forty four percent to sixty percent, depending on grade level. Their college readiness score was forty five point five, which is sixty two and a half percent higher than the city college readiness score. 

Remote Work

The rise of remote work has also contributed to a shift away from the city and toward the suburbs. With more employers granting workers the freedom to work remotely, living in or close to the city isn’t as important as it used to be. According to USA Today, as of 2024, eighty two percent of companies now offer remote work options, reflecting a strong trend towards flexible work arrangements. Currently, thirty percent of employees work remotely full-time, while fifty two percent work remotely part-time. This data illustrates the widespread adoption of remote work across various industries. Over the past five years, remote work has grown by fifteen percent, indicating a significant increase in its prevalence. Looking forward, this trend is expected to continue with a projected ten percent increase in remote work over the next two years, showcasing the ongoing shift towards more flexible work environments.

Looking Ahead

As we look to the future, the trend towards suburban growth is expected to continue, driven by the rise of remote work and a focus on housing affordability and quality of life. Suburbs are poised for sustained growth, offering new opportunities and challenges alike. The suburban influx of new residents brings opportunities for growth and development, but also challenges in terms of infrastructure and resources. In the city, losing residents means a smaller tax base and potential challenges in funding public services. And yet, Chicago remains a vibrant and dynamic city, with home values holding strong and even increasing. The city’s unique cultural amenities, diverse communities, and energetic urban lifestyle continue to attract those who appreciate its distinctive character. If you’re considering a move to Chicago or the western suburbs, reach out to me anytime. Don’t forget to like this video, subscribe to my channel, and turn on notifications. I’m Eric with Andersen Realty Group, a family-owned brokerage where we treat our clients like family.

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